Insights
Notes on statistics, modelling and better decisions
Practical articles on statistical thinking, data modelling and AI, written for the people who make decisions with numbers.
Regression to the mean: the most expensive statistical mistake in management
Your worst performers improve after a warning. Your best performers slip after praise. It looks like feedback works one way and not the other. Most of the time, it is neither.
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Simpson’s paradox: when the average lies about your business
Every segment improves, yet the total gets worse. How a shift in the mix can reverse a KPI, what the classic cases teach, and how to read your own dashboards safely.
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